Biocomplexity - Feedbacks between ecosystems and the climate system
This is a National Science Foundation supported collaborative research project subcontracted through the Marine Biological Laboratory.
Project Participants
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Marine Biological Laboratory
Jerry Melillo, jmelillo@mbl.edu
Dave Kicklighter, dkick@mbl.edu
Research Overview
The boreal forest is one of the earth’s largest biomes and contains some of the world’s largest reserves of carbon. Wildfires are a common occurrence across the pan-boreal region, and changes in the fire regime have consequences for water, energy, and trace gas feedbacks to the climate system. Although fire is common, the underlying mechanisms that influence the fire regime at large scales are incompletely understood. Using historical wildfire records compiled for this region we attempt to answer the following questions:
- What is the role of wildfire in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region?
- What is the role of wildfire in the carbon dynamics of the boreal region for future scenarios of climate change?
Project Objectives
- Develop a fire module within the structure of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)
- Dataset development (fire severity parameterization, fire return interval interpolation, cohort algorithm)
- Conduct model simulations to evaluate the role of historical wildfires in the carbon dynamics
of the pan-boreal region
- Utilize data mining techniques for the development of a prognostic fire model
- Predict annual area burned in response to monthly climate and fuel moisture codes from
the Canadian Fire Weather Index System - Simulate the role of fire in the boreal region for future scenarios of climate change
- Extrapolate annual area burned for future scenarios of climate change (through 2100)
- Develop downscaling method for incorporation into the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model
- Evaluate the role of fire in the carbon dynamics of the boreal system for future
scenarios of climate change
Selected Publications
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, P.A. Duffy, D.W. Kicklighter, J.M. Melillo, and T.J. Burnside. The vulnerability of carbon storage in boreal North America during the 21st Century in response to increases in wildfire activity. In prep for Global Change Biology.
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, P. Duffy, M. Flannigan, J. Walsh, and J.M. Melillo. Modeling historical and future area burned of boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Submitted to Global Change Biology.
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, Q. Zhuang, J. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, E. Kasischke, C. Wirth, M. Flannigan, J. Harden, J. S. Clein, T. J. Burnside, J. McAllister, W. A. Kurz, M. Apps, and A. Shvidenko, 2007. The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research,112, G02029, doi:10.1029/2006JG000380.
Presentations
- Balshi, M.S. and A.D. McGuire, 2007. The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis. VI International Conference on Disturbance Dynamics in Boreal Forests, Fairbanks, AK. Poster.
- Balshi, M.S. and A.D. McGuire, 2006. The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA. Oral presentation.
- Balshi, M.S. and A.D. McGuire, 2006. The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: a process based analysis. AAAS Arctic Science Conference, Fairbanks, AK. Poster.
- A. David McGuire, E. Euskirchen, F.S. Chapin III, M. Balshi, Q. Zhuang, J. Melillo, D. Kicklighter, J. Walsh, and C. Wirth, 2006. Integrated Regional Changes in Boreal Forests: Implications for the Global Climate System, 13th International Boreal Forest Research Association (IBFRA) Conference, Umea, Sweden.
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, et al. 2006. The role of fire disturbance in the response of historical carbon dynamics in the boreal forest. European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Austria Center, Vienna, Austria. Poster.
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, et al. 2006. The role of fire disturbance in the response of historical carbon dynamics in the boreal forest. USGS Alaska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit Review, Fairbanks, AK. Oral Presentation.
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, et al. 2006. The role of fire disturbance in the response of historical carbon dynamics in the boreal forest. International Arctic Research Center/Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Terrestrial Team Workshop (IARC/JAXA), International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK. Poster.
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, et al. 2006. The role of fire disturbance in the response of historical carbon dynamics in the boreal forest from 1950-2002. LTER Symposium, Princess Hotel, Fairbanks, AK. Poster.
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, et al. 2006. The role of fire disturbance in the response of historical carbon dynamics in the boreal forest from 1950-2002. Long Term Ecological Research/Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (LTER/JAXA), International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK. Oral presentation.
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin III, T.S. Rupp, and D.L. Verbyla. 2004. Modeling the role of wildfire in the global carbon cycle. Alaska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit Review. Fairbanks, AK. Poster.
- Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, and P.A. Duffy, 2004. Modeling the dynamics of wildfire in the North American boreal forest. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA. Poster.
- Balshi, M.S., D.L. Verbyla and A.D. McGuire. 2003. Evaluating the influence of historical wildfire scars and climate on NDVI changes in Alaska. Poster.
- presented at the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) All-Scientists Meeting. Seattle, WA. Travel funded by Bonanza Creek LTER.
- presented at the 2003 LTER Symposium, Princess Hotel, Fairbanks, AK
- presented at the 2004 International Boreal Forest Research Association Conference, Princess Hotel, Fairbanks, AK
*Some of the material on this website is based upon work supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Agreement No. xxxx. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.