Spatial Ecology Lab (SEL) Publications Since 2000

See below for submitted and in prep manuscripts, chapters, reports and dissertations, and selected publications prior to 2000

• Euskirchen, S.E., A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin III, and S. Yi. 2008. (Text) (Figures) (Appendix 1) (Appendix 2) Changes in plant communities in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change 2003-2100: Implications for climate feedbacks. Ecological Applications. In press.
• Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, P. Duffy, M. Flannigan, J. Walsh, D. W. Kicklighter, and J.M. Melillo. 2008. Modeling historical and future area burned of boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology. In press.
• Wood, S.A., J. Beringer, L.B. Hutley, A.D. McGuire, A. Van Dijk and M. Kilinc. 2008. Impacts of forest age and runoff in mountain ash forests. Functional Plant Biology 35:483-492.
• Myers-Smith, I., J. Harden, M. Wilmking, C. Fuller, A.D. McGuire, and F.S. Chapin III. 2008. (pdf) Wetland succession in a permafrost collapse: Interactions between fire and thermokarst. Biogeosciences 5:1273-1286
• McGuire, A.D., J. Walsh, J. Kimball, J. Clein, S. Euskirchen, S. Drobot, U. Herzfeld, J. Maslanik, R. Lammers, M. Rawlins, C. Vorosmarty, T. Rupp, W. Wu, and M. Calef. 2008. (pdf) The Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE): Overview and synthesis. Earth Interactions 12, paper 7, 13 pages, doi:10.1175/2008EI239.1.
• Chapin, F.S. III, J.T. Randerson, A.D. McGuire, J.A. Foley, and C.B. Field. 2008. (pdf) Changing feedbacks in the climate-biosphere system. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6:313-320, doi:10.1890/080005.
• Chapin, F.S., III, S.F. Trainor, O. Huntington, A.L. Lovecraft, E. Zavaleta, D.C. Natcher, A.D. McGuire, J.L. Nelson, L. Ray, M. Calef, N. Fresco, H. Huntington, T.S. Rupp, L. DeWilde, and R.A. Naylor. 2008. (pdf) Increasing wildfire in Alaska’s boreal forest: Causes, consequences, and pathways to potential solutions of a wicked problem. BioScience 58:531-540.
• Turetsky, M.R., C.C. Treat, M.P. Waldrop, J.M. Waddington, J.W. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2008. (pdf) Short-term response of methane fluxes and methanogen activity to water table and soil warming manipulations in an Alaskan peatland. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 113, G00A10, doi:10.1029/2007JG000496.
• Calef, M.P., A.D. McGuire, and F.S. Chapin III. 2008. (pdf) Human influences on wildfire in Alaska from 1988 through 2004: An analysis of spatial patterns of human impacts. Earth Interactions 12, paper 1, 17 pages, doi:10.1175/2007EI220.1.
• Myers-Smith, I., A.D. McGuire, J.W. Harden, and F.S. Chapin III. 2007. (pdf) The influence of disturbance on carbon exchange in a permafrost collapse and adjacent burned forest. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biosciences 112, G04017, doi:10.1029/2007JG000423.
• Euskirchen, S.E., A.D. McGuire, and F.S. Chapin III. 2007. (pdf) Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming. Global Change Biology 13:2425-2438, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01450.x
• Kane, E.S., E.S. Kasischke, D.W. Valentine, M.R. Turetsky, and A.D. McGuire. 2007. (pdf) Topographic influences on wildfire consumption of soil organic carbon in black spruce forests of interior Alaska: Implications for black carbon accumulation. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences 112, G03017, doi:10.1029/2007JG000458.
• Clein, J.S., A.D. McGuire, S.E. Euskirchen, and M. Calef. 2007. (pdf) The effects of different climate input data sets on simulated carbon dynamics in the western Arctic. Earth Interactions 11, paper 12, 24 pages, doi:10.1175/EI229.1.
• Duffy, P.A., J. Epting, J.M. Graham, T.S. Rupp, and A.D. McGuire. 2007. (pdf) Analysis of burn severity patterns using remotely sensed data. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16:277-284.
• Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, Q. Zhuang, J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, E.S. Kasischke, C. Wirth, M. Flannigan, J. Harden, J.S. Clein, T. Burnside, J. McAllister, W. Kurz, M. Apps, and A. Shvidenko. 2007. (pdf) The role of fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences 112, G02029, doi:10.1029/2006JG000380.
• Wu, W., A.H. Lynch, S. Drobot, J. Maslanik, A.D. McGuire, and U. Herzfeld. 2007. (pdf) Comparative analiysis of the western arctic surface climate with modeling and observations. Earth Interactions 11, paper 6, 24 pages, doi:10.1175/EI202.1.
• Sitch, S., A.D. McGuire, J. Kimball, N. Gedney, J. Gamon, R. Engstrom, A. Wolf, Q. Zhuang, and J. Clein, and K.C. McDonald. 2007. (pdf) Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling. Ecological Applications 17:213-234.
• Zhuang, Q., J.M. Melillo, A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, R.G. Prinn, P.A. Steudler, B.S. Felzer, and S. Hu. 2007. (pdf) Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska: Implications for the region’s greenhouse gas budget. Ecological Applications 17:203-212.
• Kimball, J.S., M. Zhao, A.D. McGuire., F.A. Heinsch, J. Clein, M. Calef, W.M. Jolly, S. Kang, S.E. Euskirchen, K.C. McDonald, and S.W. Running. 2007. (pdf) Recent climate driven increases in vegetation productivity for the western Arctic: Evidence of an acceleration of the northern terrestrial carbon cycle. Earth Interactions 11, paper 4, 30 pages, doi:10.1175/EI180.1.
• Rupp, T.S., X. Chen, and A.D. McGuire. 2007. (pdf) Sensitivity of simulated boreal fire dynamics to uncertainties in climate drivers. Earth Interactions 11, paper 3, 21 pages, doi:10.1175/EI189.1.
• Chapin, F.S. III, G.M. Woodwell, J.T. Randerson, E.B. Rastetter, G.M. Lovett, D.D. Baldocchi, D.A. Clark, M.E. Harmon, D.S. Schimel, R. Valentini, C. Wirth, J.D. Aber, J.J. Cole, M.L. Goulden, J.W. Harden, M. Heimann, R.W. Howarth, P.A. Matson, A.D. McGuire, J.M. Melillo, H.A. Mooney, J.C. Neff, R.A. Houghton, M.L. Pace, M.G. Ryan, S.W. Running, O.E. Sala, W.H. Schlesinger, and E.-D. Schulze. 2006. (pdf) Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methodology. Ecosystems 9:1041-1050.
• McGuire, A.D., F.S. Chapin III, J.E. Walsh, and C. Wirth. 2006. (pdf) Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 31:61-91.
• McGuire, A.D. and M.A. Apps. 2006. (pdf) Climate-Disturbance Interactions in Boreal Forest Ecosystems. Foreword and peer-reviewed papers selected from the IBFRA Conference, Fairbanks, Alaska, 3 - 6 May 2004. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:765-931.
• Thompson, C.D., A.D. McGuire, J.S. Clein, F.S. Chapin III, and J. Beringer. 2006. (pdf) Net carbon exchange across the arctic tundra-boreal forest transition in Alaska 1981 - 2000. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:805-827.
• Euskirchen, S.E., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, Q. Zhuang, J.S. Clein, R.J. Dargaville, D.G. Dye, J.S. Kimball, K.C. McDonald, J.M. Melillo, V.E. Romanovsky, and N.V. Smith. 2006. (pdf) Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems. Global Change Biology 12:737-750.
• Zhang, X., A.D. McGuire, R.W. Ruess. 2006. (pdf) Scaling uncertainties in estimating canopy foliar maintenance respiration for black spruce ecosystems in Alaska. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:147-171.
• Riordan, B., D. Verbyla, and A.D. McGuire. 2006. (pdf) Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences 111, G04002, doi:10:1029/2005JG000150.
• Zhuang, Q., J.M. Melillo, M.C. Sarofin, D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, B.S. Felzer, A. Sokolov, R.G. Prinn, P.A. Steudler, and S. Hu. 2006. (pdf) CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st Century. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L17403, doi:10.1029/2006GL026972.
• Chapin, F.S., III, M. Sturm, M.C. Serreze, J.P. McFadden, J.R. Key, A.H. Lloyd, A.D. McGuire, T.S. Rupp, A.H. Lynch, J.P. Schimel, J. Beringer, H.E. Epstein, L.D. Hinzman, G. Jia, C.-L. Ping, K. Tape, W.L. Chapman, E. Euskirchen, C.D. Thompson, D.A. Walker, and J.M. Welker. 2005. Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming. Science 310:657-660.
• Apps, M.A. and A.D. McGuire. 2005. (pdf) Climate-Disturbance Interactions in Boreal Forest Ecosystems. Peer-reviewed papers selected from the IBFRA Conference, Fairbanks, Alaska, 3 – 6 May 2004. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35:2073-2293.
• Maier, J.A.K., J. Ver Hoef, A.D. McGuire, R.T. Bowyer, L. Saperstein, and H.A. Maier. 2005. (pdf) Distribution and density of moose in relation to landscape characteristics: effects of scale. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35:2233-2243.
• Beringer, J., F.S. Chapin III, C.D. Thompson, and A.D. McGuire. 2005. (pdf) Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 131:143-161.
• Hinzman, L.D., N.D. Bettez, W.R. Bolton, F.S. Chapin, M.B. Dyurgerov, C.L. Fastie, B. Griffith, R.D.B. Hollister, A. Hope, H.P. Huntington, A.M. Jensen, G.J. Jia, T. Jorgenson, D.L. Kane, D.R. Klein, G. Kofinas, A.H. Lynch, A.H. Lloyd, A.D. McGuire, F.E. Nelson, M. Nolan, W.C. Oechel, T.E. Osterkamp, C.H. Racine, V.E. Romanovsky, R.S. Stone, J. Schimel, D.A. Stow, M. Sturm, C.E. Tweedie, G.L. Vourlitis, M.D. Walker, D.A. Walker, P.J. Webber, J.M. Welker, K.S. Winker, and K. Yoshikawa. 2005. (pdf) Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic regions. Climatic Change 72:251-298.
• Calef, M.P., A.D. McGuire, H.E. Epstein, T.S. Rupp, and H.H. Shugart. 2005. (pdf) Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach. Journal of Biogeography 32:863-878.
• Zhuang, Q., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, R.G. Prinn, A.D. McGuire, P.A. Steudler, B.S. Felzer, and S. Hu. 2004. (pdf) Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century: A retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeochemistry model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18,GB3010, doi:10.1029/2004GB002239.
• Kittel, T.G.F., N.A. Rosenbloom, J.A. Royle, C. Daly, W.P. Gibson, H.H. Fisher, P. Thornton, D.N. Yates, S. Aulenbach, C. Kaufman, R. McKeown, D. Bachelet, D.S. Schimel, and VEMAP2 Participants (including A.D. McGuire). 2004. The VEMAP Phase 2 Bioclimatic Database I: A gridded historical (20th Century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA. Climate Research 27:151-170.
• Stow, D., A. Hope, A.D. McGuire, D. Verbyla, J. Gamon, K. Huemmrich, S. Houston, C. Racine, M. Sturm, K. Tape, K. Yoshikawa, L. Hinzman, C. Tweedie, B. Noyle, C. Silapaswan, D. Douglas, B. Griffith, G. Jia, H. Epstein, D. Walker, S. Daeschner, A. Petersen, L. Zhou, and R. Myneni. 2004. (pdf) Remote sensing of vegetation and land-cover changes in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Remote Sensing of Environment 89:281-308.
• Thompson, C.D., J. Beringer, F.S. Chapin III, and A.D. McGuire. 2004. (pdf) Relationship of structural complexity to land-surface energy exchange along a vegetation gradient from arctic tundra to boreal forest. Journal of Vegetation Science 15:397-406.
• McGuire, A.D., M. Sturm, and F.S. Chapin III. 2003. (pdf) Arctic Transitions in the Land-Atmosphere System (ATLAS): Background, objectives, results, and future directions. Journal of Geophysical Research 108(D2), 8166, doi:10.1029/2002JD002367.
• Zhuang, Q., A.D. McGuire, J.M. Melillo, J.S. Clein, R.J. Dargaville, D.W. Kicklighter, R.B. Myneni, J. Dong, V.E. Romanovsky, J. Harden, J.E. Hobbie. 2003. (pdf) Carbon cycling in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th Century: A modeling analysis of the influences of soil thermal dynamics. Tellus. 55B:751-776.
• Chapin, F.S. III, T.S. Rupp, A.M Starfield, L. DeWilde, E.S. Zavaleta, N. Fresco, J. Henkelman, and A.D. McGuire. 2003. Planning for resilience: modeling change in human-fire interactions in the Alaskan boreal forest. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1:255-261.
• Tian, H., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, S. Pan, J. Liu, A.D. McGuire, and B. Moore III. 2003. (pdf) Regional carbon dynamics in monsoon Asia and its implications for the global carbon cycle. Global and Planetary Change. 37:201-217.
• Bigelow, N.H., L.B. Brubaker, M.E. Edwards, S.P. Harrison, I.C. Prentice, P.M. Anderson, A.A. Andreev, P.J. Bartlein, T.R. Christensen, W. Cramer, J.O. Kaplan, A. V. Lozhkin, N.V. Matveyeva, D.F. Murray, A.D. McGuire, V.Y. Razzhivin, J.C. Ritchie, B. Smith, D.A. Walker, K. Gajewski, V. Wolf, B. Holmqvist, U. Igarashi, K. Kremenestskii, A. Paus, M.F.J. Pisaric, and V.S. Volkova. 2003. (pdf) Climate change and Arctic ecosystems I: Vegetation changes north of 55o N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene and present. Journal of Geophysical Research 18(D19), 8170, doi:10.1029/2002JD002558.
• Kaplan, J.O., N.H. Bigelow, P.J. Bartlein, T.R. Christensen, W. Cramer, S.P. Harrison, N.V. Matveyeva, A.D. McGuire, D.F. Murray, I.C. Prentice, V.Y. Razzhivin, B. Smith, D.A. Walker, P.M. Anderson, A.A. Andreev, L.B. Brubaker, M.E. Edwards, A.V. Lozhkin, and J.C. Ritchie. 2003. (pdf) Climate change and Arctic ecosystems II: Modeling, paleodat-model comparisons, and future projections. Journal of Geophysical Research 108(D19), 8171, doi:10.1029/2002JD002559.
• Overland, J., J.Calder, F. Fetter, A.D. McGuire, J. Morison, J. Richter-Menge, N. Soreide, and J. Walsh. 2003. (pdf) SEARCH Workshop on Large-Scale Atmosphere/Cryosphere Observations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84:1077-81.
• Walker, D.A, G.J. Jia, H.E. Epstein, M.K. Raynolds, F.S. Chapin III, C. Copass, L.D. Hinzman, J.A. Knudson, H. Maier, G.J. Michaelson, F. Nelson, C.L. Ping, V.E. Romanovsky, and N. Shiklomanov. 2003. Vegetation-soil-thaw depth relationships along a Low-Arctic bioclimate gradient, Alaska: Synthesis of information from the ATLAS studies. Polar and Periglacial Processes 14:103-123.
• McGuire, A.D., M. Apps, J. Beringer, J. Clein, H. Epstein, D.W. Kicklighter, C. Wirth, J. Bhatti, F.S. Chapin III, B. de Groot, D. Efremov, W. Eugster, M. Fukuda, T. Gower, L. Hinzman, B. Huntley, G.J. Jia, E. Kasischke, J. Melillo, V. Romanovsky, A. Shvidenko, E. Vaganov, and D. Walker. 2002. (pdf) Environmental variation, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water/energy exchange in high latitudes. Journal of Vegetation Science 13:301-314.
• Zhuang, Q., A.D. McGuire, J. Harden, K.P. O'Neill, V.E. Romanovsky, and J. Yarie. 2002. (pdf) Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research 107, 8147, doi:10.1029/2001JD001244 [printed 108(D1), 2003].
• Pan, Y., A.D. McGuire, J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, S. Sitch, and I.C. Prentice. 2002. (pdf) A biogeochemistry-based successional model and its application along a moisture gradient in the continental United States. Journal of Vegetation Science 13:369-380.
• Dargaville, R., A.D. McGuire, and P. Rayner. 2002. (pdf) Estimates of large-scale fluxes in high latitudes from terrestrial biosphere models and an inversion of atmospheric CO2 measurements. Climatic Change 55:273-285
• Dargaville, R., M. Heimann, A.D. McGuire, I.C. Prentice, D.W. Kicklighter, F. Joos, J.S. Clein, R.G. Esser, J. Foley, J. Kaplan, R.A. Meier, J.M. Melillo, B. Moore III, N. Ramankutty, T. Reichenau, A. Schloss, S. Sitch, H. Tian, L.J. Williams, and U. Wittenberg. 2003. (pdf) Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate and land-use effects. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16, 1092, doi:10.1029/2001GB001426.
• Clein, J.S., A.D. McGuire, X. Zhang, D.W. Kicklighter, J.M. Melillo, S.C. Wofsy, P.G. Jarvis, and J. M. Massheder. 2002. (pdf) Historical and projected carbon balances of mature black spruce ecosystems across North America: The role of carbon-nitrogen interactions. Plant and Soil 242:15-32.
• Perez-Garcia, J., L.A. Joyce, and A.D. McGuire. 2002. (pdf) Integrated ecological.economic asessments at the global scale: Lessons learned and temporal uncertainties. Forest Ecology and Management 162:105-115.
• Golet, G.H., P.E. Seiser, A.D. McGuire, D.D. Roby, J.B. Fischer, K.J. Kuletz, D.B. Irons, T.A. Dean, S.C. Jewett, and S.H. Newman. 2002. (pdf) Long-term direct and indirect effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on Pigeon Guillemots in Prince William Sound, Alaska? Marine Ecology Progress Series 241:287-304.
• Perez-Garcia, J., L.A. Joyce, A.D. McGuire, and X. Xiao. 2002. (pdf) Impacts of emissions controls on the global forest sector. Climatic Change 54:439-461.
• McGuire, A.D., S. Sitch, J.S. Clein, R. Dargaville, G. Esser, J. Foley, M. Heimann, F. Joos, J. Kaplan, D.W. Kicklighter, R.A. Meier, J.M. Melillo, B. Moore III, I.C. Prentice, N. Ramankutty, T. Reichenau, A. Schloss, H. Tian, L.J. Williams, and U. Wittenberg. 2001. (pdf) Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land-use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15:183-206.
• Silapaswan, C.S., D. Verbyla, and A.D. McGuire. 2001. (pdf) Land cover change on the Seward Peninsula: The use of remote sensing to evaluate potential influences of climate change on historical vegetation dynamics. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 5:S542-554.
• Zhuang, Q., V.E. Romanovsky, and A.D. McGuire. 2001. (pdf) Incorporation of a permafrost model into a large-scale ecosystem model: Evaluation of temporal and spatial scaling issues in simulating soil thermal dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research 106:33,649-33670.
• Amthor, J.S., J.M. Chen, J.S. Clein, S.E. Frolking, M.L. Goulden, R.F. Grant, J.S. Kimball, A.W. King, A.D. McGuire, N.T. Nikolov, C.S. Potter, S. Wang, and S.C. Wofsy. 2001. (pdf) Boreal forest CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration predicted by nine ecosystem process models: Intermodel comparisons and relationships to field measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research 106:33,623-33,648.
• Potter, C., S. Wang, N.T. Nikolov, A.D. McGuire, J. Liu, A.W. King, J.S. Kimball, R.F. Grant, S.E. Frolking, J.S. Clein, J.M. Chen, and J.S. Amthor. 2001. Comparison of boreal ecosystem model sensitivity to variability in climate and forest site parameters. Journal of Geophysical Research 106:33,671-33,688.
• Pan, Y., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, X. Xiao, and A.D. McGuire. 2001. (pdf) Modeling structural and functional responses of terrestrial ecosystems in China to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Acta Phytoecologica Sinica 25(2):175-189.
• McGuire, A.D., J. Clein, J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, R.A. Meier, C.J. Vorosmarty, and M.C. Serreze. 2000. (pdf) Modeling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: The sensitivity of pan-arctic carbon storage to temporal and spatial variation in climate. Global Change Biology 6:S141-S159.
• McGuire, A.D., J.M. Melillo, J. T. Randerson, W.J. Parton, M. Heimann, R.A. Meier, J.S. Clein, D.W. Kicklighter, and W. Sauf. 2000. (pdf) Modeling the effects of snowpack on heterotrophic respiration across northern temperate and high latitude regions: Comparison with measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide in high latitudes. Biogeochemistry 48:91-114.
• Chapin, F.S. III., A.D. McGuire, J. Randerson, R. Pielke, Sr., D. Baldocchi, S.E. Hobbie, N. Roulet, W. Eugster, E. Kasischke, E.B. Rastetter, S.A. Zimov, W.C. Oechel, and S.W. Running. 2000. (pdf) Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system. Global Change Biology 6:S211-S223.
• Clein J.S., B. Kwiatkowski, A.D. McGuire, J.E. Hobbie, E.B. Rastetter, J.M. Melillo, and D.W. Kicklighter. 2000. (pdf) Modeling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: A comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties. Global Change Biology 6:S127-S140.
• Tian, H., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, J.V.K. Helfrich III, B. Moore III, and C.J. Vorosmarty. 2000. Climatic and biotic controls on interannual variations of carbon storage in undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin. Global Ecology and Biogeography 9:315-336.
• Schimel, D., J. Melillo, H. Tian, A.D. McGuire, D. Kicklighter, T. Kittel, N. Rosenbloom, S. Running, P. Thornton, D. Ojima, W. Parton, R. Kelly, M. Sykes, R. Neilson, B. Rizzo, and L. Pitelka. 2000. Carbon storage by the natural and agricultural ecosystems of the US (1980-1993). Science 287:2004-2006.
• Seiser, P.E., L.K. Duffy, A.D. McGuire, D.D. Roby, G. Golet, and M.A. Litzow. 2000. (pdf) Comparison of Pigeon Guillemot, Cepphus columba, blood parameters from oiled and unoiled areas of Alaska eight years after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Marine Pollution Bulletin 40:152-164.

Books, Book Chapters and Reports Since 2000

• Griffith, D.B., and A.D. McGuire. 2008. National Wildlife Refuges Case Study: Alaska and the Central Flyway. In Annex A of Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, S.H. Julius, and J.M West (eds.), J.S. Baron, B. Griffith, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (authors). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, pp. A-36 - A-46.
• Scott, J.M., D.B. Griffith, R.S. Adamcik, D.M. Ashe, B. Czech, R.L. Fischman, P. Gonzalez, J.J. Lawler, A.D. McGuire, and A. Pidgorna. National Wildlife Refuges. 2008. Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, S.H. Julius, and J.M West (eds.), J.S. Baron, B. Griffith, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (authors). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, pp.5-1 - 5-100.
• Corell, R.W., S.J. Hassol, J.M. Melillo, D. Archer, E. Euskirchen, F.S. Chapin III, A.D. McGuire, T.R. Christensen, V.P. Fichelet, K. Walter, Q. Zhuang, T. Callaghan, S. Bech, and C. McMullen. 2008. Methane from the Arctic: Global warming wildcard. In: UNEP Year Book 2008 (edited by P. Harrison), pp 37-48. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
• Vorosmarty, C.J., A.D. McGuire, L. Hinzman, M. Holland, M. Murray, J. Schimel, W. Warnick, J. Weatherly, H. Wiggins. 2007. (pdf) New perspectives through data discovery and modeling: Arctic System Synthesis Workshop, Seattle, Washington, 2-4 April 2007. Eos 88(27):278.
• Hayes, D.J., L. Guo, and A.D. McGuire. 2007. (pdf) A scientific synthesis and assessment of the arctic carbon cycle: AMAP/CliC/IASC Arctic Carbon Cycle Assessment Workshop, Seattle, Washington, 27 February – 1 March 2007. Eos 88(26):270.
• McGuire, A.D., F.S. Chapin III, C. Wirth, M. Apps, J. Bhatti, T. Callaghan, T.R. Christensen, J.S. Clein, M. Fukuda, T. Maximov, A. Onuchin, A. Shvidenko, and E. Vaganov. 2007. (pdf) Responses of high latitude ecosystems to global change: Potential consequences for the climate system. In: Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World. (eds. Canadell, J.G., Pataki, D.E., and Pitelka, L.F.), pp. 297-310. The IGBP Series, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg.
• McGuire, A.D. and F.S. Chapin III. 2006. (pdf) Climate feedbacks in the Alaskan Boreal Forest. In: Alaska’s Changing Boreal Forest (eds. Chapin F.S. III, Oswood M.W., Van Cleve K., Viereck L.A., Verbyla D.L.), pp. 309-322. Oxford University Press, New York.
• Chapin, F.S. III, A.D. McGuire, R.W. Ruess, M.W. Walker, R.D. Boone, M.E. Edwards, B.P. Finney, L.D. Hinzman, J.B. Jones, G.P. Juday, E.S. Kasischke, K. Kielland, A.H. Lloyd, M.W. Oswood, C.L. Ping, E. Rexstad, V.E. Romanovsky, J.P. Schimel, E.B. Sparrow, B. Sveinbjornsson, D.W. Valentine, K. Van Cleve, D.L. Verbyla, L.A. Viereck, R.A. Werner, T.L. Wurtz, and J. Yarie. 2006. (pdf) Summary and Synthesis: Past and future changes in the Alaskan boreal forest. In: Alaska’s Changing Boreal Forest (eds. Chapin F.S. III, Oswood M.W., Van Cleve K., Viereck L.A., Verbyla D.L.), pp. 332-338. Oxford University Press, New York.
• Valentine, D.W., K. Kielland, F.S. Chapin III, A.D. McGuire, and K. Van Cleve. 2006. (pdf) Patterns of biogeochemistry in Alaskan boreal forests. In: Alaska's Changing Boreal Forest (eds. Chapin F.S. III, Oswood M.W., Van Cleve K., Viereck L.A., Verbyla D.L.), pp. 241-266. Oxford University Press, New York.
• Chapin, F.S., III, M. Berman, T.V. Callaghan, P. Convey, A.-S. Crepin, K. Danell, H. Ducklow, B. Forbes, G. Kofinas, A.D. McGuire, M. Nuttall, R. Virginia, O. Young, and S. Zimov. 2005. (pdf) Polar Systems. In: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Current State and Trends (eds. Hassan, H., Scholes, R., Ash N.), pp. 717-743. Island Press, Washington.
• McGuire, A.D., M. Apps, F.S. Chapin III, R. Dargaville, M.D. Flannigan, E.S. Kasischke, D. Kicklighter, J. Kimball, W. Kurz, D.J. McRae, K. McDonald, J. Melillo, R. Myneni, B.J. Stocks, D.L. Verbyla, and Q. Zhuang. 2004. Land cover disturbances and feedbacks to the climate system in Canada and Alaska. In: Land Change Science: Observing, Monitoring, and Understanding Trajectories of Change on the Earth's Surface (eds. Gutman G., Janetos A.C., Justice C.O, Moran E.F., Mustard J.F., Rindfuss R.R., Skole D., Turner II B.L., Cochrane, M.A.), pp. 139-161. Kluwer Adademic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
• Csiszar, I., C.O. Justice, A.D. McGuire, M.A. Cochrane, D.P. Roy, F. Brown, S.G. Conard, P.G.H. Frost, L. Giglio, C. Elvidge, M.D. Flannigan, E. Kasischke, D.J. McRae, T.S. Rupp, B.J. Stocks, and D.L. Verbyla. 2004. Land use and fires. In: Land Change Science: Observing, Monitoring, and Understanding Trajectories of Change on the Earth’s Surface (eds. Gutman G., Janetos A.C., Justice C.O, Moran E.F., Mustard J.F., Rindfuss, R.R., Skole, D., Turner II B.L., Cochrane M.A.), pp. 329-350. Kluwer Adademic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
• Harden, J.W., R. Meier, C. Darnel, D.K. Swanson, and A.D. McGuire. 2003. (pdf) Soil drainage and its potential for influencing wildfire. Pages 139-144 in J.P. Galloway (editor) Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey in Alaska, 2001. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1678. Reston, Virginia.
• Huntington, H.P., M. Berman, L. Cooper, L. Hamilton, L. Hinzman, K. Kielland, E. Kirk, J. Kruse, A. Lynch, A.D. McGuire, D. Norton, and A. Ogilvie. 2003. Human dimensions of the Arctic System: Interdisciplinary approaches to the dynamics of social-environmental relationships. Arctic Research of the United States , 17:59-69.
• Overland, J., F. Fetter, A.D. McGuire, J. Richter-Menge, and J. Walsh. 2003. SEARCH Workshop on Large-Scale Atmosphere/Cryosphere Observations. Contribution 2452. Pages 1077-1081 in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society August 2003 vol. 84. NOAA/ Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. Seattle, Washington.
• Golet, G.H., P.E. Seiser, A.D. McGuire, D.D. Roby, J.B. Fischer, K.J. Kuletz, D.B. Irons, T.A. Dean, S.C. Jewett, and Scott Newman. 2002. Pigeon Guillemot (Cepphus columba) Perspective: Mechanisms of impact and potential recovery of nearshore vertebrate predators following the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill: Long-term direct and indirect effects of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill on pigeon guillemots in Prince William Sound, Alaska, in Holland-Bartels, L.E., ed, 2002. Mechanisms of impact and potential recover of nearshore vertebrate predators following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, volume 1. Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Restoration Project Final Report (Restoration Project 99025), U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Biological Science Center, Anchorage, Alaska, pp. 6.1 - 6.36.
• McGuire, A.D. 2002. (pdf) Ecosystem Element Cycling. In: Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, Volume 2.2. (eds. El-Shaarawi A.H., Piegorsch W.W.), pp. 614-618. John Wiley & Sons.
• Prentice, I.C., G.D. Farquhar, M.J.R. Fasham, M.L. Goulden, M. Heimann, V.J. Jaramillo, H.S. Kheshgi, C. Le Quere, R.J. Scholes, D.W.R. Wallace and contributing authors (including A.D. McGuire). 2001. The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Houghton J.T., et al.), pp. 183-237. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
• Walsh, J.E., J. Curry, M. Fahnestock, M.C. Kennicutt II, A.D. McGuire, W.B. Rossow, M. Steele, C.J. Vorosmarty, and R. Wharton. 2001. Enhancing NASA's Contribution to Polar Science: A Review of Polar Geophysical Data Sets. National Academy Press. Washington, D.C. 124 pages.
• Heimann, M., and CCMLP Participants (including A.D. McGuire). 2000. The Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP). Research GAIM 4:7-9,12-15.

Manuscripts Submitted

• Hayes, D.J., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, T.J. Burnside, and J.M. Melillo. In review. The effects of land cover and land use change on the contemporary carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the Eurasian Arctic. Chapter 5 in Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate (edited by G. Gutman, P. Groisman, and Reissell).
• Krankina, O.N., D. Pflugmacher, D. Hayes, A.D. McGuire, M. Hansen, T. Hame, V. Elsakov, and P. Nelson. In review. Vegetation cover in the Eurasian Arctic: Distribution, monitoring, and role in carbon cycling. Chapter 4 in Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate (edited by G. Gutman, P. Groisman, and Reissell).
• Yi, S., A.D. McGuire, J. Harden, E. Kasaschke, K. Manies, L. Hinzman, A. Liljedahl, J. Randerson, H. Liu, V. Romanovsky, and S. Marchenko. A dynamic soil layer model for assessing the effects of wildfire on high latitude terrestrial ecosystem dynamics I: The environmental module. In prep for Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences.
• Calef, M.P., A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin III. In review. Large fires in Alaska: Causes, trends, and suppression effects at two scales. Submitted to International Journal of Wildland Fire.
• Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, P.A. Duffy, J.M. Melillo, and T.J. Burnside. In review. The vulnerability of carbon storage in boreal North America during the 21st Century in response to increases in wildfire activity. Submitted to Global Change Biology.
• Trainor, S.F., F.S. Chapin III, A.D. McGuire, M.P. Calef, N. Fresco, M. Kwart, P. Duffy, A. Lovecraft, T.S. Rupp, L. DeWilde, O. Huntington, and D. Natcher. In review. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in Interior Alaska. Submitted to Polar Research.

Manuscripts In Preparation

• Pruett, L.E., J.W. Harden, M.P. Waldrop, D.H. Doctor, M.R. Turetsky, A.D. McGuire. Carbon isotopes of soil-respired CO2 and DOC leachate along a moisture gradient in interior Alaska: implications for landscape transitions in a changing climate. In prep for Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences.
• McGuire, A.D., L. Anderson, T.R. Christensen, S. Dallimore, L. Guo, D. Hayes, M. Heimann, T. Lorenson, R. Macdonald, and N. Roulet. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic climate change. In prep for Ecological Applications.
• McGuire, A.D., L.A. Joyce, J.S. Clein, D.P. Coulson, and T. Burnside. Historical changes in carbon storage of the eastern United States: Uncertainties associated with forest harvest and agricultural activities. In prep for Ecological Applications.
• Joyce, L.A., D.P. Coulson, A.D. McGuire, R. Birdsey, B. Smith, and T. Burnside. Harvesting disturbances on U.S. forestland from 1600 to present. In prep for Ecological Applications.

Selected Publications Prior to 2000

• McGuire, A.D. and J.E. Hobbie. 1997. (pdf) Global climate change and the equilibrium responses of carbon storage in arctic and subarctic regions. In: Modeling the Arctic System: A Workshop Report of the Arctic System Science Program. Pages 53-54. The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, Fairbanks, Alaska.
• McGuire, A.D., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, Y. Pan, X. Xiao, J. Helfrich, B. Moore III, C.J. Vorosmarty, and A.L. Schloss. 1997. (pdf) Equilibrium responses of global net primary production and carbon storage to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide: Sensitivity to changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 11:173-189.
• McGuire, A.D., J.M. Melillo, and L.A. Joyce. 1995. (pdf) The role of nitrogen in the response of forest net primary production to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:473-503.
• McGuire, A.D., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, and L.A. Joyce. 1995. (pdf) Equilibrium responses of soil carbon to climate change: Empirical and process-based estimates. Journal of Biogeography 22:785-796.
• McGuire, A.D., L.A. Joyce, D.W. Kicklighter, J.M. Melillo, G. Esser, and C.J. Vorosmarty. 1993. (pdf) Productivity response of climax temperate forests to elevated temperature and carbon dioxide: A North American comparison between two global models. Climatic Change 24:287-310.
• McGuire, A.D., J.M. Melillo, L.A. Joyce, D.W. Kicklighter, A.L. Grace, B. Moore III, C.J. Vorosmarty. 1992. (pdf) Interactions between carbon and nitrogen dynamics in estimating net primary productivity for potential vegetation in North America. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 6:101-124.